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阪神大賞典を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Hansindaisyouten

■1■瞬発力勝負に
過去6年間、勝ち馬の上がり3ハロン時計は以下のとおり。

平成16年 リンカーン       34秒5
平成17年 マイソールサウンド 34秒8 
平成18年 ディープインパクト  36秒8
平成19年 アイポッパー      34秒3
平成20年 アドマイヤジュピタ  34秒7
平成21年 アサクサキングス  40秒6

ディープインパクトが勝った年は、馬場が重く、異常なほど強い風が吹いていたため、また昨年は不良馬場であったため時計が掛かったが、それ以外はどの年も34秒台となっている。3000mを走って34秒台で上がってくるのだから、道中がいかに遅いペースで流れ、ラスト3ハロンの瞬発力勝負になっているかが分かる。これが阪神大賞典と天皇賞春の結びつきが強い理由のひとつでもある。長距離戦だからといって、決してスタミナ豊富な馬が有利なのではなく、まずは瞬発力が求められることを知っておきたい。

■2■内枠で先行出来る馬が有利
スローペースの瞬発力勝負になりやすい以上、当然のことながら、内枠を引いて内々の経済コースを進んだ馬が有利となる。ただし、長距離戦では各馬もコースロスを意識して外々を回らないように運んでくるため、たとえスローペースであっても、馬群は縦長になることが多い。そのため、内外という枠順でそれほど大きな差は生じない。内枠から発走して、前にポジショニングできて、ラスト3ハロンの瞬発力勝負に強ければ、勝ち負け必至のレースである。

■3■1,2番人気馬が圧倒的に強い
過去11年間の人気ごとの成績は以下のとおり。

1番人気【6・3・1・1】 連対率81%
2番人気【3・4・1・3】 連対率64%
3番人気【0・0・4・7】 連対率 0%

1番人気馬の連対率が8割、2番人気馬の連対率が6割と、圧倒的な安定感を誇っていることが分かる。これは人気馬が強いということではなく、長距離戦では各馬の実力や仕上がり具合が如実に現れてしまうということである。たとえ展開やレースの綾があったとしても、力のない馬や仕上がりの良くない馬が好走してしまう確率は極めて低い。実力と仕上がり状態をそのまま信頼してよいレースである。

現在のランキング順位はこちら

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