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高松宮記念を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Takamatsu1

■1■差し馬有利の展開に
中京競馬場は小回り、直線に坂がなく平坦であるため、本来は圧倒的に先行馬が有利なコースであるが、最後の1ハロンでスピード自慢の先行馬の脚が止まり、スタミナを備えた差し馬がゴール前で逆転するという展開のレースになりやすい。

「差し馬有利」の状況は、ラップタイムからも一目瞭然である。過去6年間の前半後半3ハロンのラップタイムは以下のとおりである。
 前半 ― 後半
平成13年 33.5―34.9 (前後半の落差1.4)
平成14年 32.9―35.5 (前後半の落差2.6)
平成15年 32.9―35.2 (前後半の落差2.3)
平成16年 32.9―35.0 (前後半の落差2.1)
平成17年 33.3―35.1 (前後半の落差1.8) 
平成18年 33.7-34.3 (前後半の落差0.6)
平成19年 33.8-35.1 (前後半の落差1.3)
平成20年 33.4-33.7 (前後半の落差0.3)
平成21年 33.1-34.9 (前後半の落差1.8)

ほぼ毎年、前半が速くて後半が掛かるという、典型的な前傾ラップである。「短距離の差し馬」という格言があるように、基本的にスプリント戦は差し馬有利な前傾ラップになることが多い。特にG1のスプリント戦となると、スピードのある馬が揃い、前半のポジション争いが厳しくなるため、どうしても上がりの掛かる展開となるのは避けられない。

それに輪をかけるのが、3~4コーナーの曲がりのキツさである。逃げ馬・先行馬が直線の短さを生かして流れ込もうとしても、3~4コーナーの曲がりがキツく、どうしても多少のブレーキがかかってしまう。直線に向いてから、馬群が膨らんでヨーイドンのレースになるので、さらに瞬発力のある差し馬に有利なレースとなるのである。

つまり、高松宮記念は、見た目以上に差し脚が生きるコースである。G1スプリント戦の性格に加え、コース形態がスピードとスタミナを兼ね備えた強い差し馬に有利に働くということだ。直線が短く、坂がない先行馬有利なコースというイメージを捨て去って予想に臨むべきである。

■2■馬場の不利、枠順の不利
開幕最終週の馬場の傷みは、コースの内外による有利不利を生み出してしまうこともある。平成12年のキングヘイロー、13年のトロットスター、17年のアドマイヤマックスと、大外を回った馬が勝利したように、今後も内側が傷んで走りにくいという馬場設定になってしまう可能性は大きい。

さらに、中京競馬場はコース幅が狭くカーブもきついため、枠順の内外も考慮に入れるべきである。枠順の内外が不利につながるケースとして、以下の2つが考えられる。

☆ケース1
テンのダッシュが速くない馬が内枠に入ると、外から速い馬に来られ、包まれてしまい何も出来ずに終わってしまう。
☆ケース2
外枠を引いた馬が、内に入れるヒマもなく、終始外々を回されて終わってしまう。

このように、どの枠順を引いて、馬場のどこを通って来られたかによって、勝利の行方は左右されることになる。ゲートを出てみないと、どうなるか分からないことも多い。

しかし、全体的に見ると、よほど極端な枠順を引かない限り、スピードとスタミナを兼ね備えた強いスプリンターが勝つことのできる舞台であるといえる。

■3■5歳馬が有利
高松宮記念が3月に移行された過去9年間における、年齢別の成績は以下のとおり。

4歳   【1・2・1・42】 連対率7%
5歳   【7・5・3・35】 連対率24%
6歳   【2・2・4・36】 連対率9%
7歳以上【0・1・2・36】 連対率3%

勝率だけを見ても、5歳馬が圧倒していることが分かる。勢いのある4歳馬が、充実の5歳馬にねじ伏せられてしまうという形になりやすい。6歳以上の馬になってくると、スピード不足を露呈してしまうのか、年齢と共に勝率は下がっていくことになる。スピードとスタミナを兼ね備えたスプリント能力を問われるということだ。

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