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天皇賞春をラップから占う

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京都3200mコースは天皇賞春専用のコースである。スタートしてから第1コーナーまでの距離は417mと長く、しかも緩やかな上りになっているため、無謀な先行争いはほとんどない。過去5年間で前半の1000m(赤字)が60秒を切ったレースは一度もないように、菊花賞と比べても、前半5ハロンはよりスローに流れる。

1週目は、ゆっくりと3コーナーを頂上とする坂を上って下り、スタンド前では馬を落ち着かせて、折り合いをつけることに専念する。もしスタンド前直線のペースが速くなった場合は、向こう正面が遅くなり、スタンド前直線のペースが遅くなった場合は、向こう正面が速くなる。よって、スタンド前か向こう正面のいずれかで中緩みが必ず生じることになる。

前半がスローに流れ、中盤が緩むことも必至であるため、坂を下りながらのラストの800mのラップは速く、上がりの競馬になりやすい。ディープインパクトが勝ったレースは例外としても、ラスト1000mが60秒を切る決着となる可能性が高い。つまり、折り合いを欠くことなく先行し、温存した全ての力をラスト1000mで爆発させることの出来る馬にとって有利なレースとなる。

また、菊花賞が行われる京都3000mとは距離的には200mしか違わないが、菊花賞がAコース(幅員35m)で行われるのに対し、天皇賞春はDコース(幅員25m)で行われる(今年はBコース)。そのため、天皇賞春が行われるDコースの方が4コーナーの回りがきつくなり、外枠の差し馬は外を回さざるを得ない。よって、菊花賞に比べ、天皇賞春は逃げ・先行馬がペース次第では逃げ残ってしまい、人気の差し馬が届かない可能性が高い。後ろから行く馬にチャンスがあるとすれば、中緩みしたところで前との差を詰めることが出来た場合のみか。

現在のランキング順位はこちら

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Comments

こんにちは♪

今年は中京が改装で天皇賞春はBコース使用ですね。
Dコースは幅員が狭いので差し・追込み馬はマクリ
が基本になってしまいます。

今年はどうでしょうか?

メンパ的にどうだ?という声も聞かれますが、春の
大一番、楽しみにしたいと思います。

Posted by: ナルトーン | April 30, 2010 03:06 PM

ナルトーンさん

こんばんは!

そうでした、今年はBコースでしたね。

Bコースであれば、菊花賞と同じく内に突っ込めるでしょう。

しかも、菊花賞と違って、バテて下がってくる馬もいないので、思い切って内を突けるはずですね。

どの馬がそんな競馬をするのか、今から楽しみです。

教えてくれてありがとうございます。

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