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オークスを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Oaks

■1■オークスを勝つための条件
牝馬クラシックにおける、桜花賞1600m→オークス2400m→秋華賞2000mという距離の伸縮には少なからず問題点があるだろうが、実際のところ、オークスは2400m戦のレースであっても、内容(実質)的には1600m~2000m程度のものになってしまうことが多い。なぜなら、どの馬にとっても2400mは未知の距離となるため、各騎手に前半大事に乗ろうという気持ちが働き、ペースが遅くなるケースが多いからである。道中はゆっくりと行って、ラストの瞬発力勝負というレースになりがちで、そのため、オークスを勝つために条件となるのは、「スローペースに折り合える」、「瞬発力がある」という2点となる。

■2■桜花賞組が有利
また、桜花賞からの直行組の活躍が顕著なのは、桜花賞組の完成度が高いからである。スローペースに折り合うことができれば、たとえマイラーでもオークスの2400mは十分にこなせてしまう。最終的に問われるのは「絶対能力」であり、桜花賞で勝負になるだけのスピード(瞬発力を含む)、スタミナがあれば、それがそのままオークスでも十分通用してしまう。よって、別路線組よりも完成度(現時点での「絶対能力」)がはるかに高い、桜花賞組が有利になるのである。

■3■桜花賞→オークスの連覇はなぜ少ないか ではなぜ桜花賞→オークスという連覇が少ないかというと、 1、桜花賞馬はスピードが勝っている傾向がある 2、桜花賞で力を出し尽くしている という2点が考えられる。
桜花賞を勝つような馬は、全体的なバランスとしてスピードが勝っている傾向が強いので、「スローペースに折り合える」「瞬発力がある」のどちらかを満たしていないことが多い。もちろん完成度が高いため好走はするのだが、それだけではオークスを勝ち切ることは難しい。

さらに、桜花賞を勝つために力を出し切ってしまった馬が多く、1ヶ月半後のオークスまで体調を維持することができないことが多い。この時期の牝馬の体調は変わりやすいのである。つまり、余力を残して桜花賞を勝つか、余程能力が他馬と比べて抜けているかでないと、桜花賞→オークスという連覇は難しい。ただし、2005年~2006年の阪神競馬場の改修に伴うコース変更で、以前よりは桜花賞→オークスが連動しやすくなるだろう。

もうひとつ言えるのは、この時期の牝馬はフケ、歯替わりなどによって体調が安定していないことが多く、仕上げが非常に難しいことに加え、展開が極端になりやすいこともあり、オークスはなかなか堅くは収まらないレースであるということである。

■参考として
1)1600m以上のレースで連対したことのない馬は×
2)たとえ桜花賞であろうとも、前走が着外であった馬は×
3)重賞未経験の馬は×
4)連対率が50%以下の馬は×
5)桜花賞のあとレースを使った馬は×


関連リンク
「半熟卵の冒険」:【展望】オークス・チューリップ賞回顧

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