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京都記念を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Kyotokinen

■1■明け4歳馬が断然
過去11年における、年齢別の勝利数と勝率は以下のとおり。

4歳 【7・2・2・26】 19%
5歳 【2・0・3・22】  7%
6歳 【2・8・4・28】  5%
7歳以上【0・1・2・33】 0%

明け4歳馬が圧倒的な強さを見せている。年齢が高くなるごとに勝率は低くなっていく傾向は顕著であり、7歳以上の馬に至っては勝ち馬が出ていない。春の中距離戦におけるカギとなるレースだけに、勢いと成長力のある明け4歳馬が出走してきたら注目すべきである。

■2■スタミナ豊富な馬を狙え
京都2200m(外回り)は、スタンド前からの発走となり、最初のコーナーまでの距離は397mと短くも長くもない。1コーナーまでには各馬の位置取りがスムーズに決まることが多く、コーナーを2つ回って、向こう正面にかけて比較的穏やかにレースが進む。しかし、高低差は4.3mと、丘をひとつ越えていかなければならないため、スタミナが問われるレースになる。

このコースで結果を出している種牡馬を見ていくと、ダンスインザダーク、ホワイトマズル、スペシャルウィーク、ジャングルポケット、マンハッタンカフェ、ステイゴールドなど、2400mを越える距離を得意とするステイヤー型の血統である馬がほとんどである。

■3■前走G1レース組に注目
香港ヴァーズ、香港CなどのG1レースも含め、過去5年で4頭が前走G1レースを経て、京都記念を勝利している。過去10年にデータを広げても、10頭中5頭が前走G1レース組である。前走が昨年末の有馬記念である馬は、一旦少し緩めてから再度仕上げ直すのには最適のローテーションなのであろう。もし前走G1レース(有馬記念)組が出走してこないのであれば、日経新春杯を使って、ここが最高潮の仕上がりにある馬を狙うべきである。

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