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産経大阪杯を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Sankeioosakahai

■1■4歳馬が圧倒
過去10年の勝ち馬の年齢を見ると、4歳馬が6頭、5歳馬が2頭、6歳馬が1頭、7歳以上の馬が1頭と、4歳馬が他馬を圧倒している。年齢を重ねるごとに勝ち馬が少なくなっているように、実績や格ではなく、勢いが求められる舞台となる。クラシックで活躍した馬が充電を経てターフに戻ってきたり、また古馬になってから急激に力を付けてきた馬たちにとっては、実力を存分に発揮できるレースである。サラブレッドとして充実著しい4歳馬を中心に考えてみたい。

■2■1番人気が強い
過去10年間における、人気別の着順を見てみたい。

1番人気 【6・2・1・1】 勝率60% 連対率80%
2番人気 【0・1・1・7】 勝率0%  連対率10%
3番人気 【3・2・1・5】 勝率30% 連対率50%

かつてマイルCSは1番人気が最も堅いレースとして有名であったが、今では産経大阪杯がそれに取って代わろうとしている。勝率60%、連対率80%という数字は驚異的である。ひとつの理由としては、超A級の馬たちが、別定戦であるこのレースを狙って出走してくるからである。その傾向は、日本の競馬がスピード化するにしたがって強くなってきている。一昔前まで超A級の馬は阪神大賞典に出走していたが、今は距離適性も含めて産経大阪杯に出てくることが多くなっているということだ。たとえ休み明けであっても、強い馬であれば十分勝ち負けになる。

■3■内を回って先行できる馬
過去8年のラップタイムを見てみたい。

12.7-11.3-11.9-12.0-12.2-12.1-11.8-11.9-11.3-12.4(60.1-59.5)M
12.7-10.4-12.0-12.0-12.1-12.4-12.2-12.0-11.5-11.7(59.2-59.8)M
12.8-11.6-12.5-12.6-12.5-12.4-12.3-12.2-12.3-13.3(62.0-62.5)M
12.8-11.5-13.1-12.6-12.2-12.2-11.9-11.7-11.4-12.0(62.2-59.2)S
12.5-10.8-12.2-12.1-12.0-12.3-12.0-11.5-11.6-11.7(59.6-59.1)M
12.6-11.5-11.9-11.9-12.1-12.8-12.1-11.9-11.2-11.7(60.0-59.7)M
12.1-11.1-12.8-12.3-12.0-12.2-11.6-11.5-11.7-12.2(60.3-59.2)S
12.5-11.0-12.3-12.1-11.4-11.6-11.6-11.3-11.8-12.2(59.3-58.5)M

どのレースも速くともミドルペース、遅ければスローに流れる傾向がある。阪神競馬場の内回りということで、4つコーナーを回る小回りの直線が短いコースで行われるとイメージしてよい。ペースが落ち着きやすいことも考慮に入れると、どうしても内枠の先行馬が有利になる。

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