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秋のG1戦線を占なう(牝馬クラシック路線)

Akinog1sensenwo05_2牝馬路線クラシックに話題を移そう。桜花賞とオークスを勝ったジェンティルドンナは、果たして3冠馬になれるのか。個人的には、かなり難しいと思う。なぜかというと、オークスが激しいレースになったからである。川田将雅騎手が最後までビッシリ追ったことで、5馬身も千切って、強さを見せ付けたことは確かだが、100%もしくはそれ以上の力を出し切ってしまったのだ。強かった反面、余力を一滴も残さない勝ち方であった。

川田将雅騎手にしてみると、オークス後は休養に入ることを計算に入れた勝ち方ということだろうが、それでも桜花賞とオークスであれだけの激走をした反動は必ず出るはず。特に3歳春の牝馬にとって、オークスの2400mという距離を走り切ることは、想像を絶するほど苛酷なのである。秋華賞までに、その反動から回復できるかどうか。最後はジェンティルドンナの生命力にかかっているが、常識的には厳しいだろう。もちろん、それさえも克服してこそ、3冠馬に輝くことができるとも言える。

桜花賞2着、そしてオークスも2着に輝いたヴィルシーナの素質も高い。スローに流れるはずのオークスが意外にもハイペースになったのは、この馬にとって痛かった。春は完成度という点においてジェンティルドンナに軍配が上がったが、ジェンティルドンナが順調さを欠くようであれば、この馬が金メダルを獲る可能性は高い。道中はゆったりと行って、ラストを生かすレースがヴィルシーナには合っているので、秋華賞というよりはエリザベス女王杯という感はある。しかし、それも夏を越しての成長によりけりで、著しいほどのパワーアップがあれば秋華賞でもチャンスはあるはず。

アイアムユアーズは桜花賞3着、オークス4着。つまり、ジェンティルドンナ、ヴィルシーナ、アイアムユアーズがほとんどワンツースリーフィニッシュだから、この世代の中では3頭の力が一枚以上抜けているということだ。よほどのことがない限り、3歳牝馬は春の完成度の違いがそのまま秋につながってしまうため、この3頭を脅かす馬が出現してくることはまずないだろう。アイアムユアーズは実際に古馬相手にクイーンSを完勝しており、2000mまでの距離であれば隙はない。秋華賞ということであれば、ヴィルシーナよりもこちらの方が上かもしれない。

ジョワドヴィーヴルは、今から思うと、阪神ジュベナイルFに滑り込みで出走できて、しかも勝ったことが裏目に出てしまった感がある。キャリア2戦目での勝利は、高い素質の表れではあるが、まだ体が出来上がっていない段階でどこか無理をしていたのだろう。人間からの期待もプレッシャーとなっていたに違いない。とにかく無事にターフに帰ってきてくれることを願う。

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Comments

ハナズゴールも相当強いと思いますが…どうでしょうか?

Posted by: 小泉光広 | August 23, 2012 at 10:41 AM

小泉さま

ハナズゴールも古馬相手に札幌記念で強いレースを見せましたね。

脚質的に末脚一辺倒なところがあるので、
上位3頭に比べると流れに左右されるところがあるのではないでしょうか。

ハナズゴールが伏兵として盛り上げてくれると、
今年の牝馬クラシック戦線はなお楽しみですね。

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