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札幌記念を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Sapporo

■1■G1馬もしくはG1級の馬
過去の勝ち馬を見ると、2つのタイプがいることが分かる。エアグルーヴ、セイウンスカイ、テイエムオーシャン、ファインモーション、フサイチパンドラなど既にG1を勝っていた馬と、ヘヴンリーロマンス、アドマイヤムーン、アーネストリー、トーセンジョーダンなど札幌記念を勝利した後にG1を勝った馬である。つまり、札幌記念はG1級の力がないと勝つのが難しいレースである。

札幌競馬場はヨーロッパの馬場に近いタフな馬場であり、本当に能力がないと勝てない。さらに札幌記念には古馬の一戦級が集まってくるため、このレースを勝つことはG1レースを勝つだけの能力が優にあることの証明でもある。札幌記念はG2レースではあるが、G1馬もしくはG1級の能力がある馬を狙ってみたい。

■2■牝馬
牡馬(セン馬含む)【7・9・9・101】 連対率13%
牝馬         【4・2・2・10】  連対率33%

過去11年間で牝馬が4勝しているだけでなく、連対率も33%と驚異的な数字を残している。平坦コースが牝馬にとってプラスに働くということに加え、前述のようにG1級の能力がなければ勝てないレースに出てくるということは、それだけ体調が良いということである。古馬の一戦級を相手に回して、勝負になる手応えがあるからこそ出走してくる牝馬には要注意。

■3■一瞬の切れを持った差し馬
スタートから第1コーナーまで400mほどの距離があるため、内枠外枠での有利不利はほとんどない。それでも、4つコーナーを回る小回りの競馬場である以上、第1コーナーまでに内のポジションを取れないと、終始外々を回らされる羽目になる。特に外枠を引いた馬は苦しいレースを強いられるだろう。

また、G1級のメンバーが揃うこともあって、道中のペースは速くなることが多い。逃げ・先行馬よりも差し馬を狙いたいのだが、いかんせん最後の直線が短い。よって、最後の短い直線だけで差し切ることのできる、一瞬の切れを持った差し馬が狙いか。

このように、あらゆる意味で札幌競馬場は騎手の技術が問われるレースであり、過去10年で武豊騎手が3勝、横山典弘騎手、藤田伸二、福永祐一騎手がそれぞれ1勝しているように、ジョッキーの腕も問われることになる。

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Comments

 こんばんは 3歳だったブエナビスタに乗るために安藤騎手が52Kgに落としたことがありました。2着だったかな?後のブエナビスタを見れば、この時期の3歳牝馬では届かないでしょう。

 定量戦・・・実績馬優位です。
 古馬・・・57Kg・55Kg
 3歳・・・54Kg・52Kg

 57Kg(牝55Kg)で重賞を制した馬
 トーセンジョーダン
 ヒルノダムール
 ダークシャドウ
 ここまでが3強(人気)でしょう。

 フミノイマージン(56KgでG3優勝)
 ・・・人気薄で来そうな予感も。父マンハッタンカフェはコース適性ありですね。

 ヒットザターゲット
 ・・・57Kg微妙もG1の58Kgも経験しました。1Kg軽くなるので克服できるかも?

 今のところこの5頭・・・一番好きなトーセンジョーダンから4点買ってみようかな?

Posted by: 玉ちゃん | August 14, 2012 at 11:58 PM

玉ちゃん

今年の札幌記念はいつもに増してメンバーが揃って面白そうですね。

しかし、3強ともに8分程度の仕上がりだけに、最後は地力がものを言うのではないでしょうか。

秋に向けて、どの馬にも期待しましょう!

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