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札幌2歳Sを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Sapporo2sais

■1■字ズラ以上のスタミナ
過去11年の勝ち馬から、2頭のダービー馬(ジャングルポケット、ロジユニヴァース)とジャパンカップ馬(アドマイヤムーン)、また2着馬から秋華賞馬のアヴェンチュラ、皐月賞馬のゴールドシップが出ているように、クラシックからその先を目指す素質馬たちにとっては、まさに登竜門となるレースである。

開幕最終週の洋芝で行われるからこそ、勝ち馬には字ズラ(1800m)以上のスタミナが要求されることになる。当然のことながら、前走で1800m戦を経験していることが望ましいが、たとえ前走が短距離戦だったとしても、距離延長がプラス材料になる馬であれば問題ない。キャリアの浅い馬が多いため、距離適性の見極めが大切である。

■2■牡馬
過去11年を振り返ってみても、牝馬がなんと1勝も出来ていない。連対率にしても8%と、牡馬の17%と比べると明らかに低い。小倉2歳Sと比較すると一目瞭然だが、スプリント戦に比べて底力が問われる中距離戦では、この時期でも牡馬が優勢ということである。2000年にはのちのG1馬テイエムオーシャンも出走して1番人気に推されたが、惜しくも3着に敗れてしまった。

■3■内枠の馬
スタートしてから第1コーナーまでの距離が185mと極端に短い。小回りコースのため、外枠から発走する馬が馬群にもぐり込むことができなければ、コーナーを回るたびに外々を回されることになる。そのコーナーが4つもある以上、外枠を引くことによる距離ロスは少なくない。また、外枠を引いた差し馬にとっては、コーナーを回っているとすぐにその次のコーナーがやってくるので、前の馬との距離を縮めるのが難しい。内枠が良いというよりも、外枠を引いてしまった馬は苦戦を強いられるだろう。

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