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毎日王冠を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Mainitioukann

■1■とにかく逃げ・先行有利
府中の1800展開いらず、どんな展開になっても強い馬が勝つという意味の格言だが、開幕週に限っては当てはまらない。この時期の東京競馬場は、夏の間に十分根を張った軽いオーバーシード芝となる。洋芝はまだ芽が出かけた程度で、ほぼ野芝100%の極めて軽い馬場であるため、前に行った馬が簡単には止まらない。たとえかなりのハイペースになったとしても、とにかく逃げ・先行馬に有利なレースとなる。

■2■前走がG1、もしくは重賞勝利馬
過去11年間の、前走をクラス別で分けると以下のとおり。
G1    【7・7・3・32】
G2    【0・2・2・21】
G3    【3・1・5・45】
OP以下【1・1・1・9】

過去11年の連対馬中で、14頭が休み明けの前走G1組、その他6頭はG2、G3をステップとしている。休み明けにもかかわらず、前走G1組が勝利しているように、この時期になると夏を使ってきた馬よりも実績のある実力馬にとって有利なレースとなる。前走がG1組であれば着順は関係ないが、G2、G3もしくはOP以下のレースをステップとしてきた馬は、前走勝って臨んできている上り馬であることが必須条件となる。

■3■5歳馬中心
世代別の成績は以下の通り。
3歳馬【1・2・0・6】 連対率33%
4歳馬【2・3・3・25】 連対率13%
5歳馬【4・4・0・35】 連対率19%
6歳馬【1・2・3・11】 連対率18%
7歳馬以上【1・0・3・19】 連対率8%

連対率こそ変わらないが、勝ち馬、連対馬共に、夏を越して本格化した5歳馬の活躍が目立つ。秋の中距離G1シリーズに向けてキーとなるステップレースである以上、ひと夏を越しての成長が見込まれる馬を探すべきレースである。

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