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弥生賞と皐月賞のラップタイムを比較してみると

Yayoi

皐月賞と同じ舞台で行われるものの、過去10年間で弥生賞と皐月賞を連勝したのはディープインパクト、そしてヴィクトワールピサという2頭の名馬のみ。その理由について、ラップタイプから考察してみたい。

弥生賞の過去9年間のラップタイムは以下のとおりである。

12.6-11.0-11.8-12.3-12.0-12.0-12.7-12.7-12.5-12.7(59.7-62.6)H
12.6-11.8-12.1-12.2-12.2-12.3-12.5-11.6-11.3-11.9(60.9-59.6)S
13.0-11.9-12.5-12.3-12.5-12.6-12.5-11.6-11.4-11.9(62.2-60.0)S
12.4-11.3-12.5-12.6-12.4-12.0-12.7-12.3-11.7-11.6(61.2-60.3)S
12.3-10.6-11.6-12.8-12.5-12.6-12.9-11.8-11.7-11.7(59.8-60.7)M
12.2-11.5-12.4-12.8-12.9-12.5-12.3-11.7-11.3-12.2(61.8-60.0)S
12.4-11.3-12.2-13.0-13.1-13.0-12.7-12.2-11.5-12.1(62.0-61.5)M
12.8-11.3-12.2-12.8-12.6-12.4-12.2-11.8-11.2-11.7(61.7-59.3)S
12.5-11.0-12.7-13.5-13.4-13.1-12.3-11.9-11.5-12.0(63.1-60.8)S

前半3ハロンとラスト3ハロンを除いた中盤のラップに焦点を当ててみると、例外なく12秒台が続いていることが分かる。以前、中山金杯の分析をした際、皐月賞は中盤が緩むという指摘をしたが、それに輪をかけるように弥生賞はその傾向が顕著である。

そこで、今度は、過去9年間の皐月賞のレースラップを見てみたい(東京競馬場で行なわれた2011年は除く)。

12.5-11.3-12.4-12.9-12.6-12.6-12.2-11.4-11.5-11.8(61.7-59.5)S
12.5-11.3-12.4-12.9-12.6-12.6-12.2-11.4-11.5-11.8(59.7-58.9)M
12.1-11.0-11.9-12.2-12.4-12.6-12.5-11.8-11.4-11.3(59.6-59.6)M
12.3-11.3-12.0-12.1-12.3-12.0-12.2-11.8-11.7-12.2(60.0-59.9)M
12.2-11.2-12.1-11.6-12.3-12.3-12.3-11.6-12.0-12.3(59.4-60.5)H
12.2-11.5-12.5-12.6-12.6-12.8-12.3-11.2-11.5-12.5(61.4-60.3)S
12.1-10.8-11.9-12.1-12.2-12.1-11.9-11.8-11.7-12.1(59.1-59.6)M
12.1-10.9-12.4-12.1-12.6-12.5-12.3-12.1-11.8-12.0(60.1-60.7)M
12.4-11.1-12.3-11.9-11.4-11.6-12.2-12.7-13.6-12.1(59.162.2)H

中盤が緩む傾向は同じだが、ひとつだけ弥生賞との相違点がある。それはレース全体のペースである。どちらかというとミドル~ハイペースになる皐月賞に比べ、弥生賞はどちらかというとスローに流れやすい。つまり、弥生賞はスタミナの裏づけがないマイラーでも乗り方次第ではこなせてしまう可能性があり、ラスト3ハロンの瞬発力勝負に強い馬に圧倒的に有利なレースになるということである。過去、サンデーサイレンス産駒の活躍が目立ったのもこれゆえである。

結論としては、弥生賞の勝ち馬を見つけるためには、皐月賞を占うレースであるにもかかわらず、皐月賞では勝てそうにないタイプの馬を探すべきということである。どういう馬かというと、サンデーサイレンスの血を受け継いだ、スピードタイプの瞬発力に優った馬である。

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