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フローラSを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Floras

■1■前走500万下でキャリア3戦以上
桜花賞よりも距離的にはオークスに近いはずだが、フローラSの勝ち馬は過去10年間でわずか1頭しかオークスを勝ったことがない。桜花賞に間に合わなかった馬たちの最終戦であり、現時点では桜花賞組に比べて完成度が劣るからである。陣営もその辺りは承知で使ってくるはずで、オークス前のトライアルをひと叩きというより、とりあえずここを勝つことに目標を定めてきている馬が多いはず。

そこで狙ってみたいのは、前走が500万下を勝ちあがってきた馬と、フラワーCで惜敗を喫してしまい、目標を桜花賞からオークスに切り替えた馬の2パターンである。ただし、いくら前者の500万下組みであっても、キャリアが浅すぎてはいけず、最低3戦はあるべきだろう。

■2■意外と人気馬が強い
過去10年の人気別のレース着順をみてみたい。

1番人気 【4・1・0・5】 連対率50%
2番人気 【2・1・1・6】 連対率30%
3番人気 【0・3・2・5】 連対率30%
4番人気 【0・2・3・5】 連対率20%
5番人気 【1・0・0・9】 連対率10%
それ以外 【3・3・4・115】 連対率7%

1番人気の馬から人気順に好結果を出しているように、意外と荒れない。3歳牝馬同士のトライアルということで荒れそうなイメージはあるが、人気馬が強い。好素質馬がここを勝つことを目標に仕上げてきたら、たとえ人気でも素直に狙ってみるべき。

■3■内枠を引いた馬
過去10年における枠順(内と外)別の着順は以下のとおり。

1~4枠 【6・7・2】
5~8枠 【4・3・8】

1~4枠の内枠が外枠を圧倒している。スタートしてからすぐに第1コーナーに至ってしまう東京の2000mというコース設定を考えると、外枠よりも内枠の方がスムーズに先手を取ることができる。このレースの勝ちポジは前から10番手以内のできれば内なので、外枠からだとそのポジションはどうしても走りづらい。逆に8枠からは3頭の勝ち馬が出ているのは、どうせ外なら邪魔されずに自分のリズムを貫ける大外の方が良いということである。

現在のランキング順位はこちら

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Comments

JRAのHPみていたらびっくりしましたレーシングセミナーでるんですね!須田さん井内さん・・・え?谷桃子さんとの競演ですか!?

須田さんと井内さんの2人は重鎮ですが、谷さんとはどういう事になるのかまったく解りませんね。テレビではすごいキャラですが・・・。

こっそり観にいきます!がんばってください!

Posted by: もんぺ | April 20, 2013 at 12:13 AM

 フローラS・・・難しそうです。大くずれのないセキショウにオークスの権利を取ってもらいたいところです。

Posted by: 玉ちゃん | April 20, 2013 at 01:02 AM

玉ちゃん

おはようございます。

毎年フローラSは難しくみえますよね。

セキシュウは横山騎手がどう乗るのか楽しみです!

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | April 20, 2013 at 09:32 AM

もんぺさん

おはようございます。

日にちは聞いていたのですが、
メンバーは初めて知りました(笑)

重鎮たちの中で私に何ができるのか分かりませんが、
楽しんできたいと思います!

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