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◎ジェンティルドンナ

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潮の満ち引きや月の満ち欠けがあるように、サラブレッドの体調にもバイオリズムがあります。そのことが昨年は良かったけど今年は悪かったり、春シーズンは不調だったが秋シーズンは絶好調のような形で表に出てくるのです。昨年秋に牝馬3冠を達成し、返す刀でジャパンカップを制したジェンティルドンナが、今年はドバイでは人気に応えられず、宝塚記念ではゴールドシップにねじ伏せられたのも当然といえば当然ですし、昨年の有馬記念で古馬を相手に強烈な捲くりを披露したゴールドシップが、天皇賞春ではまさかの凡走をし、荒れ馬場の宝塚記念を強引な位置取りで勝ったものの、秋緒戦の京都大賞典では惨敗を喫してしまったもの納得です。

日本の競馬において、春と秋にG1レースが組まれている以上、その年の前半(春シーズン)と後半(秋シーズン)という形での対比が可能です。その中で、宝塚記念は鍵を握るレースになります。なぜなら、6月最終週という、前半シーズンのラストに組まれている番組だからです。この宝塚記念を勝つためには、それ相応の仕上げを施さなければならず、6月後半で100%に仕上がった馬が十分な休養を取って、秋シーズンに向けて調整をすると、どうしてもピークは後ろ倒しになってしまうのです。だからこそ、宝塚記念を制した馬が天皇賞秋を好走した例はほとんどありません。間に合わないというのが正直なところです。

そう考えていくと、ジェンティルドンナとゴールドシップの2頭の比較ということであれば、前者に分があることが分かります。ジェンティルドンナの春シーズンの結果が思わしくなかったのは、昨年秋の疲れを引きずっていたからで、決して力負けではありません。むしろ、そのような状態で、ドバイシーマクラシックを2着、宝塚記念を3着した実力を評価すべきでしょう。宝塚記念後には十分な休養を挟んで、天皇賞秋からの始動にしたのも頷けます。休み明けでしたらか、ジャスタウェイの激走に屈したのは仕方ないとして、この秋の最大目標であるジャパンカップには完調で出走できそうです。バイオリズム的にも、ここでは負けられない、負けたくないはずですね。

ゴールドシップは気持ちの強さで走るタイプですので、精神面でのバイオリズムにも注目すべきです。宝塚記念はやや無理強いされて走った感もあったので、そのツケがこの秋に噴出しているのかもしれません。ここも凡走して、気力が戻ってきた有馬記念で好走というのがパターンですが、逆に無理をしてジャパンカップで走ってしまうと、今度は有馬記念で思わぬ凡走があります。そういう裏腹なところのある馬ですね。速い時計や速い上がりに対応できないということではなく、本質的には気持ちで走るタイプだからこそ、気力を出し切った後の反動が出るということです。

ジャパンカップの勝ちポジは、東京2400mの勝ちポジと同じく、中団の内です。スタートしてから第1コーナーまでに、内ラチ沿いを確保することが重要です。どの馬もどの騎手も内に殺到するので、外枠から発走する馬が内ラチ沿いを走るのは困難で、基本的には内枠からスタートを切れる馬が狙い目となります。実力上位3頭の中では、勝ちポジを走れるのはジェンティルドンナかエイシンフラッシュでしょう。エイシンフラッシュは枠なりで勝ちポジにドンピシャですし、ジェンティルドンナは自分よりも内からスタートする馬たちよりも先行力があるので、少し切れ込む形でエイシンフラッシュのひとつか2つ前の内を確保できるはずです。どちらも勝ちポジを走れそうである以上、前走(天皇賞秋)のハイペースを前で受けて、勝ち馬以外には先着を許さなかった◎ジェンティルドンナの方がややスタミナ面で分があるとみて本命を打ちたいと思います。

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