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朝日杯FSを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Asahihaifs

■1■絶対的能力と完成度が問われる
傾向としては1番人気が強く、過去13年間で【3・4・4・2】という成績である。勝率ほぼ2割、連対率5割、複勝率もほぼパーフェクトに近い。1番人気が好走することで有名なマイルチャンピオンシップよりも高い数字である。また、2番人気においても、【4・2・0・5】と1番人気を上回るほどの成績を残している。理由としては、かなり速い時計での決着となるため、実力の有無がはっきりと出てしまうことが考えられる。

また、過去13年の勝ち馬を見ると、平成16年のマイネルレコルト、平成18年のドリームジャーニー、平成19年のゴスホークケン以外、すべての馬が前走1着していることが分かる。これは現時点での絶対的な能力や完成度が問われるレースになることを示している。重賞ならば最低でも3着以内に好走していること、もちろん条件戦で負けているようでは×。

■2■生粋の逃げ馬は通用しない
ここまで逃げて勝ってきた馬がまったく通用していないことにも注目したい。中山1600mのコース形態上、2コーナーまでの位置取り争いが激化するため、ほぼ毎年、前に行った馬には厳しいペースとなる。さらに、最後の直線に急坂があることによって、スピードだけで押し切るのは難しい。

このレースを逃げ切ったのはゴスホークケンだけ。そもそも、この年はペースがそれほど速くはなかったし、ゴスホークケンはその前走で抑える競馬をしていた。つまり、スピードを武器にした一本調子の馬ではなく、抑えが利いて、終いの脚を生かすような競馬ができる馬でないとこのレースは勝てないということだ。

■3■スタミナがないと勝ち切ることはできない
このレースはペースが速くなることが多く、スピードこそ絶対だが、スタミナもないと勝ち切ることはできない。そのため、1600m以上の距離のレースを経験していることはほぼ必須条件になってくる。ということからも、もし東京スポ-ツ杯(G3 東京1800m)のレースを勝った馬が順調に出走してくれば、間違いなく勝ち負けになるだろう。

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