« 距離延びて良いモーリス:5つ☆ | Main | 日本人騎手に必要な騎乗技術とは(前編) »

日経新春杯を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Nikkeisinsyunhai

京都の2400mはスローの瞬発力勝負になりやすい典型的なコースである。スタートしてから最初のコーナーまでが597mとかなり長いため、無理な先行争いもまずなく、1コーナーに入るとひと息入る。最後の直線が長いことを考えると、向う正面で自ら動く馬もさほどおらず、通常、各馬が動き始めるのは丘の坂下から。そこからラスト4ハロンの上がり勝負になる。

実際に過去10年間の日経新春杯のラップタイムを見てみると、その傾向がよく分かる。

2004年 シルクフェイマス
12.8-11.2-11.4-12.3-12.1-12.3-12.7-12.5-12.1-11.6-11.8-11.7(72.1-72.4)M 
47.7-49.6-47.2
2005年 サクラセンチュリー 
13.0-12.2-12.2-13.8-12.9-12.9-13.2-12.9-11.8-11.5-10.8-11.8(77.0-72.0)S
51.2-51.9-45.9
2006年 アドマイヤフジ
12.6-10.9-11.3-12.7-12.4-12.5-12.7-12.7-12.2-11.7-12.0-12.6(72.4-73.9)H
47.5-50.3-48.5
2007年 トウカイワイルド
12.5-11.2-11.0-13.0-12.8-13.0-13.8-12.8-11.7-11.7-11.6-12.3(73.5-73.9)M
47.7-52.4-47.3
2008年 アドマイヤモナーク
12.5-11.4-11.3-12.7-12.8-12.6-12.5-12.3-11.9-12.2-12.2-13.0(73.3-74.1)M
47.9-50.2-49.3
2009年 テイエムプリキュア
12.7-11.3-11.7-12.7-12.7-12.6-12.6-12.1-11.6-11.9-11.9-12.8(73.7-72.9)M
48.4-50.0-48.2
2010年 メイショウベルーガ
12.7-10.3-11.0-12.4-12.5-12.4-12.3-12.9-12.1-11.9-12.1-11.8(71.3-73.1)H
46.4-50.1-47.9
2011年 ルーラーシップ
12.6-10.8-10.8-12.7-13.2-12.6-12.6-12.9-11.9-11.1-11.6-11.8(72.7-71.9)M
46.9-51.3-46.4
2012年 トゥザグローリー
12.3-11.0-11.3-12.2-12.3-12.5-12.4-12.8-11.8-11.5-11.7-11.9(71.6-72.1)M
46.8-50.0-46.9
2013年 カポーティスター
12.5-11.6-11.8-12.2-12.3-12.3-12.5-12.5-12.1-11.9-11.6-11.7(60.4-59.8)M
48.1-49.6-47.3

前後半1200mのラップタイム(青字)から判断すると、ハイペースとなったのは2006年と2010年だけで、それ以外の年は、ミドル~スローペースとなっている。何よりも注目すべきは、前半中盤後半に分けた800mずつのラップタイム(赤字)である。京都2400m外回りで行われる日経新春杯の特徴的な流れとして、「速緩速」もしくは「緩緩速」というリズムのレースが多く目立ち、典型的な上がり4ハロンの競馬になっていることが分かる。

以上のことから、3つのポイントが導き出される。

①内枠有利
②上がりの競馬に強い馬
③サンデーサイレンス直仔の産駒

①の内枠有利は言うまでもない。道中がこれだけスローに流れやすい以上、4つのコーナーで外々を回されてしまう外枠を引いた馬はロスが大きいということである。すんなり前に位置できる脚質の馬であれば大した問題ではないが、ギリギリまで脚を溜めて瞬発力勝負に賭けたい差し馬にとっては、内枠は願ったり叶ったりの枠になる。

3コーナーの丘の坂下から一気に動き始めるレースになりやすい以上、追っつけて伸びるような馬ではなく、一気にトップギアに入り、②上がりの競馬(ラスト4ハロンのスピード勝負)に強い馬にとって有利になる。スタミナよりも、折り合いさえつけばスピードの爆発力の方が問われるということである。

そういった意味において、③のサンデーサイレンス産駒が得意とする舞台であることが分かる。サンデーサイレンス直仔がいなくなった以降のサンプルは少ないが、それ以前の4年間では勝率15%、連対率26%という圧倒的な数字を残していた。今後は父から瞬発力を受け継いだ、サンデーサイレンス直仔の産駒、または母の父がサンデーサイレンスという血統の馬にも期待が出来るだろう。

現在のランキング順位はこちら

|

Comments

boots
red bottoms shoes or shoes for females, necklace girls, pendant for females This reveals just as if, the greater wide variety of apparel a female offers double the time of shoes your woman keeps in addition to three times time of trainers packed areas her own storage. Certainly no female is capable of having an adequate amount of footwear, specially durant for female. As
Replica Christian Louboutin Shoes long just as style and fashion continuously eist, ladies definitely will keep up with the unique developments. Brings together, footwear, halloween costume rings, trainers for ladies or anything else. very make or break all of your start looking. In actual fact, even a hassle-free accessory for girls with a inappropriate costume might be affected by a person presence.As a result, it preference to appear
louboutin replica superior to the rest affords the women any reason to invest in increasingly more sneakers; greater the alternate options the better it happens to be. Females, who like their self-confidence execute most of the talking about, can include their boots inside the conversation to boot. Although be sure that not
Replica Louboutin Shoes to dress in excessively bracelets utilizing your clothes, or otherwise, improved property value . you peer showy. If you don an important earrings with all your apparel afterward do not dress in heavy rings with it together with viceversa. Finest could be to keep it simple using the diamond necklace for ladies so as to wear equally. Each lady is known for a special style of items, they are truly happy with. That's the reason why, as outlined by their
cheap louboutin shoes replica very own flavor, there are various boots or shoes girls. There are even shoes or boots which can be suitable for certain situations. Generally there requires really been events when you were not absolutely sure calling dress in any pendant or possibly black-jack shoe in your costume. Net sale point in time, you can find a comparable dilemma, dress yourself in a shoe that's fashionable bracelets women; this likeness is merely uncanny. At times, if you end up running out of strategies for the right gifts, shoes and
louboutin shoes boots perhaps even end up being just the thing for every event. Within the Twenty fifth wedding at the time you to your better half
christian louboutin shoes replica fulfilled, amaze your girlfriend using a . Or it could be, it is your teenaged little girl's special birthday also,
christian louboutin replica shoes you desire to offer her anything special. You can find not bothered shoes and boots for female which can be befitting for teenaged girls in the process. In recent times, none of us harmful toxins time going to a retailer to look. Perhaps even well known companies advertise many on-line. So, your premium bunch of female's footwear is at lots of internet vendors.The belief that brand ring for ladies are generally authentic, does not affect the fact that they tend
cheap christian louboutin to be epensive. Internet vendors not simply gathering a wide range of companies jointly yet the items are also made available for a a lot of reasonable quotes. Pendant for ladies, without which will hardly any clothes is completed, get a whole lot version that it's going to definitely impress you. A great number of methods show that you're able to check the items and judge no matter which suits you best in almost every
Replica Louboutin possible way. Similarly, internet shopping attempts difficult accommodate for a epectations.

Posted by: topredbottoms | January 15, 2014 at 12:28 PM

Everybody isabel?marant?sneakers has that unique something they like, that they can need to have the spouse to possess. Some gents love girls utilizing longer golden-haired mane, a few females like without hair gentlemen, several adult males absolutely adore lanky gents, business women really like women of all ages with the help of tats. Everybody has that special something thatthey like, how they have to have the husband or wife to acquire. Numerous guys really like a lot of women by using longblonde frizzy hair, numerous gals really like hairless males, quite a few men really like small adult men, and several womenlove gals with body art.Examples of these it is all
louboutin replica totally effortless to spot, butsome are certainly not, and it will always be distressing and shameful wondering your potentialpartner whether they have what it takes. Single ladies on the web christian louboutin normally takes thequestions out of your system!Assuming you have a special replica christian louboutin something that youlike, there will be an internet site . which can help you come across your favorite luxury complement.If you're a homoseual man and are usually trouble locating a
isabel?marant?shoes mate when it comes to yourlocal space, try out on the list of tons of malemale sites. Internet websites usually are installation specifically for gay and lesbian men who want to meet up with different gay and lesbian fellas. A few web sites offerthe extent for friendships, out of close friends to enthusiasts, many
christian louboutin replica shoes are justfor folks who choose seual human relationships, however information will probably be madeclear about the webpages site. For anyone doubtful what you wish, it could bebest commencing for a web page which gives the actual greatest assortment, then you canlessen a person's capacity once you feel comfy. You will find men and women online louboutin thatoperate eclusively to target different faiths. Meant for eample you can get Spiritual
isabel?marant?discount online websites,Muslims sitesand Judaism sites. For a second time, these internet websites obtain a substantial amount of this
cheap christian louboutin hardwork right out the going out with market! Lots of people feel fearful of displaying his or her beliefsfor panic that they will be ostracised, if the guy you've accomplished is actually about aJewish internet dating online site, then they could have similar attitudes as you may. What this means is youwill read more that is similar to he or she, so you can spend more time gettingto realize them all.  People who a lot of cash enables datingeasy, and definately will
cheap?isabel?marant? acquire enjoy difficult. There'll always be the issue in regards to whetheror never this individual is barely immediately after their money. For people with this difficulty, you actually cantry a good single people online dating service especially
red bottoms shoes well-off people today. People whosign up to do this site seem to be well-off, therefore the requests about the motivesare moot. Which means that remember, regardless of whom you are generally, nomatter the things you similar to, there's a simple single people online dating site to suit your
isabel?marant?replica needs!

Posted by: 1 | January 22, 2014 at 12:36 PM

Post a comment