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京都牝馬Sを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Kyotohinbas

■1■成長期に入る4歳馬が中心
過去10年の年齢別の成績は以下のとおり。
4歳馬【7・2・1・42】
5歳馬【2・6・3・35】
6歳馬【1・3・4・32】
7歳以上【0・0・1・12】

年が明けて古馬の仲間入りをした4歳馬が、ここから競走馬としての成長期に入る。牝馬の場合、4歳の秋を越すと精神的に充実期を過ぎてしまうことが多く、牡馬に比べてピークが4歳の春から秋までと早い。年の頭に行なわれるレースであるからこそ、ピークアウトしてしまった5歳馬よりも、ここから成長期に入る4歳馬を狙うべきである。

■2■前走G1組は敬遠が妥当
過去10年の前走クラスごとの成績は以下のとおり。
G1【0・0・0・7】       連対率0%
G2【1・0・2・15】      連対率6%
G3【5・6・1・35】      連対率24%
オープン【1・3・4・36】   連対率9%
1600万~下【2・2・2・26】 連対率13%

前走G1レースを走った馬が思わぬ凡走を繰り返しているのは、その馬自身の仕上がりや体調の問題である。前走でG1を使うような馬であったにもかかわらず、冬場を休養にあてずに、この時期の重賞を使ってくるということは、それなりの理由がある。昨年の秋のG1で思っていたような結果が出なかったため、本来は休養に入れたいが、その穴埋めをするために出走してくるケース。もしくは、賞金が足りないため、一流馬のほとんどいないこのレースで何とか賞金を加算しておこうという意図があるケース。いずれにせよ積極的な理由ではない。しかも前走のG1レースできっちりと仕上がっていただけに、ここに使ってくる前走G1馬は体調が下降線を辿っているか、あまり仕上げられずに出走してくることが多いはず。

■3■瞬発力勝負に強い馬
過去10年の前半3ハロンの平均タイムが35秒7、後半が34秒8であり、前半よりも後半の方がおよそ1秒速い後傾ラップになりやすい。京都のマイル戦にありがちな、ラストの直線に向いての瞬発力勝負になるレースということであり、当然のことながら、牝馬の中でもさらに末脚が切れる牝馬にとって有利になる。血統でいうと、やはりサンデーサイレンス系の種牡馬を父に持つ馬、その中でもさらに言うと、瞬発力勝負には滅法強いディープインパクト産駒ということになるだろう。クラシックを戦っていたような好素材のディープインパクトは、この時期のレースにはなかなか出てこないだろうが、出走してきたときには狙ってみても面白い。

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