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フィリーズレビューを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

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■1■本番・桜花賞との結びつきが弱い
過去10年間で、フィリーズレビューを使って本番・桜花賞を制したのはラインクラフトとレジネッタのみ。1週間前に行われたチューリップ賞からは7頭の桜花賞馬(スティルインラブ、ダイワスカーレット、ブエナビスタ、アパパネ、ジェンティルドンナ、アユサン、ハープスター)が出ており、その差は歴然としている。

その理由はひとつ。チューリップ賞とフィリーズレビューを天秤にかけた場合、本番へのつながりを意識すれば前者をステップにする方が望ましいのは明らかで、にもかかわらずフィリーズレビューを選択するのは、陣営が距離(もしくは折り合い)に不安を抱えているからである。僅かでも距離に不安を感じている馬が、さらに厳しい流れになるG1レースのマイル戦を勝つのは難しい。

■2■最後にもうひと伸びできるパワー
スプリント色の濃いメンバーが集まるからこそ、かえってレースの流れは厳しくなることが多い。過去10年間のラップタイムを見てみると(下参照)、スローに流れてしまいがちなチューリップ賞よりも、ミドルからハイペースに流れやすいレースの傾向が浮かび上がってくる。そのため、結局、スピード一辺倒のスプリンターでは勝ち切れず、ハイペースを好位で追走して最後にもうひと伸びできるパワーも要求される。

フィリーズレビュー過去10年ラップタイム
12.1-11.0-11.3-11.7-11.5-11.3-12.3(34.4-35.1)M
12.6-10.9-11.3-11.7-11.8-12.2-12.6(34.8-36.6)H
12.5-10.9-11.4-11.7-11.4-11.7-12.2(34.8-35.3)M
12.1-11.0-11.7-11.9-11.6-11.8-12.4(34.8-35.8)H
12.3-10.5-11.5-12.0-12.2-12.0-11.9(34.3-36.1)H
12.2-11.0-11.8-12.1-11.8-12.0-11.9(35.0-35.7)M
12.3-10.5-11.3-11.8-12.0-11.8-12.6(34.1-36.4)H
12.2-10.7-11.4-11.8-11.9-11.9-12.9(34.3-36.7)H
12.3-10.9-11.7-11.8-11.3-11.9-12.2(34.9-35.4)M
11.9-10.9-11.8-12.1-11.7-11.4-12.5(34.6-35.6)H

3■阪神1400m
スタート後、3コーナー過ぎまでの距離はおよそ440mと十分にあり、テンはそれなりに速くなる。そして、3~4コーナーが複合カーブであるため、スピードが落ちない。そのため、緩急のない全体的に速いペースで道中は流れる。しかし、3コーナーからゴール前に至るまで下りが続くため、そのまま流れ込むことの出来る先行馬が有利。

とはいえ、3~4コーナーの間に偽直線を挟んでいるため、差し馬もペースに応じて先行集団との差を詰めることが出来る。先行馬が有利なコースではあるが、決して差し馬に不利なコースではない。むしろ道中のペースが速くなりすぎると、直線の急坂で先行馬が総崩れということも十分にあり得るので注意。

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Comments

治郎丸さん
こんばんは
今日は皇帝シンボリルドルフの誕生日です。
ちなみに皇帝ペンギンは皇帝ルドルフからきてます。
ルドルフよりテイオー派ですが皇帝ペンギンです。
Fレビューはトワイライトエクスプレス25年に終止符からムーンエクスプレスがサインかなと見てます。
トワイライトには 日の出前や日没後の薄明かりを意味するらしいですが スラングとして「便所」という意味もあるそうです。
あとエフェクトの母系がなかなか魅力的だなぁと思い血統表を見てました。
この2頭に注目して見ようと思います。

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