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中山牝馬Sを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Nakayamahinnbas

■1■京都牝馬Sで負けていた馬
過去10年の連対馬を見渡すと、20頭中、7頭は京都牝馬S組である。牝馬限定の重賞同士だけに、結びつきがあって当然であるが、着順がリンクしているとは言い難い結果となっている。京都牝馬S→中山牝馬Sという連勝は一度もなく、京都牝馬Sで惨敗していた馬の中山牝馬Sでの巻き返しが多いことが特徴である。

考えうる理由は2つ。ひとつは、古馬牝馬が重賞を連続で勝つということが、体調維持の面で難しいということ。もうひとつは、京都1600m(外回り)で行われる京都牝馬Sと、中山1800mで行われる中山牝馬Sでは、勝ち馬に求められる資質が全く違ってくるからである。京都牝馬Sが一瞬の切れ味が問われるヨーイドンの競馬になるのに対し、中山牝馬Sはスピードの持続力が要求されるレースになりやすいのである。

つまり、京都牝馬Sを切れ味不足で負けていたような、スピードの持続力を武器とする、地脚の強い馬を中山牝馬Sでは狙うべきということだ。

■2■基本的には内枠の先行馬有利
中山1800mコースは、スタンド前の上り坂の途中からスタートする。スタートから第1コーナーまでの距離は205mしかなく、上りスタートのため、テンが極端に速くなることはない。よって、スロー~ミドルに流れるのが必然といえる。ただし、過去10年のラップ(以下)を見ると、意外とそうでもなく、ニシノブルームーン、レディアルバローザが勝った年はハイペースで流れている。

12.7-12.3-12.7-12.5-12.1-12.2-11.8-11.5-11.9(50.2-47.4)S
12.4-11.4-12.1-12.0-12.2-12.5-11.8-11.8-11.6(47.9-47.7)M
12.7-11.7-12.6-12.0-11.8-12.2-12.2-12.2-12.8(49.0-49.4)M
12.2-11.6-12.4-12.3-12.3-11.8-11.8-11.5-12.5(48.5-47.6)M
12.4-11.4-12.1-12.2-12.4-12.5-12.1-11.5-12.5(48.1-48.6)M
12.3-11.2-11.5-11.7-11.9-12.3-12.5-11.8-12.4(46.7-49.0)H
12.1-10.6-11.5-11.6-12.1-11.8-11.2-12.1-12.4(45.8-47.5)H
12.8-11.4-11.9-12.7-12.7-12.8-12.0-11.8-12.5(48.8-49.1)M
13.1-12.0-12.2-12.3-11.7-11.9-11.9-11.5-11.9(49.6-47.2)S
12.7-11.4-11.8-12.3-12.2-12.0-12.0-11.7-12.4(48.2-48.1)M


これはコースの形態上、どうしてもスロー~ミドルに流れやすいレースを各ジョッキーが意識するあまり、いつの間にかテンが速くなり、逃げ・先行馬が厳しいペースに巻き込まれてしまうからである。その競り合いに巻き込まれず、自分のペースで走ることが出来た馬の差しが決まることもある。各馬の出方次第でペースが極端に変わってしまう難しいレースではあるが、基本的には先行馬に有利なコースであることは間違いがない。

また、第1コーナーまでの距離が短いため、内枠を引いた馬がかなり有利になることも覚えておきたい。外枠からの発走であれば、ペースが速くなったケースにのみ、差し馬にとってはレースがしやすい。ただ、基本的には内枠の馬に有利なコースである。

■3■勝ち馬は2着馬よりもハンデが重い
過去10年の勝ち馬のハンデの平均は約55kg、2着馬のハンデの平均は約54kgと勝ち馬のハンデの方が2着馬よりも重い。実際に、勝ち馬のハンデより2着馬のハンデが重かったのは僅か2010年のみ。イメージとしては、勝ち馬は実力のある重ハンデ馬で、2着には比較的軽量のハンデ馬が突っ込んでくるというところか。

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