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ダービー卿CTを当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Derbyct

■1■波乱必至!?
ハンデ戦として施行されるようになった2002年以降、1番人気が勝ったのは2009年のタケミカヅチのみ。しかも、単勝670円という押し出された1番人気であった。過去10年の勝ち馬の人気を見てみても、3、11、7、4、1、7、8、3、5、4と上位人気の馬も不振を極めている。当然のことながら、2、3着も順当に決まることはなく、毎年、波乱必至のレースである。

荒れる理由としては、中山1600mというトリッキーなコース設定に加え、G1レースを狙う超一流のマイラーがローテーション的に参戦してこないからである。安田記念を狙うトップマイラーであれば、京王杯スプリングSもしくはマイラーズCを使うはず。谷間にあたるマイルの重賞であるからこそ、どんぐりの背比べであり、しかもハンデ戦となると一筋縄には収まらないのである。

■2■持続力のある血統
中山1600mコースはマイル戦の中でも、最もハイペースが多発するコースである。1000mが58秒を切るような流れになりやすいので、ハイペースに耐えられる血統が必要である。たとえばダンチヒ、ノーザンテースト、ストームキャットなどのノーザンダンサー系やミスタープロスペクター系、レッドゴッド系など。つまり、瞬発力に秀でたサンデーサイレンス系ではなく、ダートの1200m戦で活躍する持続力のある血統の馬を狙ってみたい。

■外枠が極端に不利
中山1600mコースは、1コーナー付近にある小高い丘の頂上からのスタート。第1コーナーとなる2コーナーまでの距離が240mと短いことと下り坂になっていることによって、流れは速くなりやすい。見た目よりもゆったりとした2コーナーを回ると、あとはひたすら下り坂で、その勢いをつけたまま4コーナーを回り直線に突入することになる。勝負の分かれ目は最後に待ち構えている坂で、余力が残っていない馬はここでパタっと止まる。そのため、前残りか前崩れかといった極端な展開になりやすい。

直線が短いためスピードだけで押し切れそうだが、直線に急勾配な坂があることによって、実はスタミナも必要とされる。かといって、ジワジワと伸びていても直線が短く届かないので、一気に坂を駆け上がるような瞬発力も要求される。

外枠が極端に不利なコースである。第1コーナーまでの距離が短いため、外枠の馬は良いポジションを確保するのが難しい。そして、コース全体が大きな円を描いているため、外を回されると内の馬と比べてかなりの距離ロスになってしまう。ペースに緩みがないため、一旦外を回されると軌道修正する前にレースが終わってしまうことも多い。

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