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桜花賞を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Oukasyo

■1■勝ち馬は「2敗以内」が目安
勝ち馬の条件としては、「2敗以内」であることが挙げられる。最近は、素質馬はあまりレース数を使わない傾向が顕著になってきており、桜花賞でも浅いキャリアで臨んできた馬が活躍している。数を使わない以上、レースに使うからにはきちんと勝てる状態に仕上げられているはずで、それでいて2敗以上しているということは、能力がないか、どこか足りない部分があるかのどちらかということになる。だからこそ、桜花賞を勝てる素質があるかどうかを見極めるためには、「2敗以内」という数字を目安にしたい。

さらに、「新馬戦を勝っている」、「牡馬を相手に勝利している」ことも、素質の有無を問うための材料にしてもよいだろう。

■2■前走の人気に注目
過去12年間で桜花賞を勝った馬の「前走の人気」を見ると、明らかな傾向があることが分かる。なんと12頭中8頭が1人気であり、2番人気が1頭、わずかに4~6番人気が3頭と、それ以下の人気であった馬は1頭も勝っていない。連対馬(2着馬)に目を向けても、8頭までが前走3番人気以内に推されている。

最も桜花賞に直結しやすいとされていたチューリップ賞だけを見ても、その勝ち馬よりも、人気に推されていたが負けてしまった馬の方が、本番での好走率が高い。つまり、前走で何着だったかという「実績」よりも、前走で何番人気に推されたかという「素質」、もしくは「資質」に注目すべきなのである。

■3■瞬発力のある馬が有利
平成19年から、桜花賞は新阪神コースの外回りで桜花賞は行われる。このことによって、勝ち馬に求められる資質が大きく違ってくることが考えられる。かつては器用さとスピードが求められていたが、今年からは「瞬発力」とそれを支える「スタミナ」が要求されることになるだろう。

ステップレースであるチューリップ賞(新阪神1600m外回り)とフィリーズレビュー(新阪神1400m内回り)のレースラップを見てみたい。

平成19年
チューリップ賞   12.4 - 10.9 - 12.1 - 12.2 - 12.2 - 11.1 - 11.0 - 11.8
フィリーズレビュー 12.5 - 10.9 - 11.4 - 11.7 - 11.4 - 11.7 - 12.2

チューリップ賞を見てみると、第1コーナーである3コーナーからガクンとペースが緩み、最終コーナーである4コーナーまで極端なスローでレースが流れていることが分かる。それに対し、フィリーズレビューではコーナーを回ってもペースがほとんど緩んでいない。

この2つのレースの違いは、展開うんぬんではなく、コースの構造に起因する。チューリップ賞が行われる新阪神1600m外回りコースは中盤が緩みやすいコース構造になっているのに対し、フィリーズレビューが行われる新阪神1400m内回りコースはそうではないということである。

つまり、道中が緩むことによって、本番の桜花賞もラスト3ハロンの瞬発力勝負になってしまう可能性が高いということである。

現在のランキング順位はこちら

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Comments

治郎丸さんこんばんは〜初めて書き込みさせていただきます。前に競馬場でギャロップのチラシを頂き見てみたら何処かで見覚えのある顔写真が載っていたので検索して辿り着きブログ拝見させてもらいました(私は学校での生徒でした)
こんなに競馬好きな人だと知ってたらもっとお話ししていれば〜と後悔してます笑
桜花賞はレッツゴードンキとルージュバックのワイドで勝負したいと思ってます。
毎週ギャロップを楽しみにしてますので馬券の参考にさせて頂きます( ^ω^ )

Posted by: マック好き | April 06, 2015 at 10:03 PM

治郎丸さん
こんにちは
桜花賞はココロノアイにしようと決めてます。
血統も魅力のひとつですが この馬の生産牧場はホクトベガと同じで騎手も横山騎手というところが 何とも惹かれます。
もしもホクトベガが無事に競走生活を全うし 母になることができていたら 今頃は孫たちが走っているんですよね
血を繋ぐことは できなかったけれど 彼女の記憶が 1頭の馬により思い出させる瞬間があると思うと まだまだ競馬はすてたもんじゃないなぁなんて思います。
素人目線ですがココロノアイの胸の筋肉が逞しいなぁと見えました。
テンダリーヴォイスは とても頭の賢い馬のようなキリッとした立ち姿だと思いました。

Posted by: 通りすがりの皇帝ペンギン | April 07, 2015 at 02:11 PM

マック好きさん

初めまして、ではないのですね(笑)

そこから辿り着くなんて素晴らしいですよ!

ぜひ一緒に競馬場に行って、競馬を語りたいですね。

毎週のギャロップも楽しみにしていてください。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | April 08, 2015 at 11:41 AM

通りすがりの皇帝ペンギンさん

ココロノアイに惹かれる気持ちはよく分かります。

素敵な名前ですし、血統的にも素晴らしいものがあります。

母系にはスタミナの血が凝縮されているので、ここだけの話ですが、私はオークスで狙いたいなと思っています(笑)

美浦の坂路をうまく使って調教されていけば、歴史に残る馬になる可能性がありますね。

桜花賞での走りももちろん楽しみです。

Posted by: 治郎丸敬之 | April 08, 2015 at 11:44 AM

治郎丸さん
こんにちは
ココロノアイ 治郎丸さんはオークス狙いなんですね!
私はできればどちらも買って欲しいですね。
ココロノアイの血統はほんとに魅力的で
母系を見るとどこまでもカタカナ表記で それだけでワクワクしました。
曾祖母がマックスビューティーなので曾祖母と同じ舞台で曾孫が輝く姿が是非見たいです。

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