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前走の派手な追い込みに惑わされることなかれ

Rensai011

競馬において最もインパクトの強い勝ち方は、派手な追い込み勝ちだろう。どう見ても届かない位置から、直線だけで他馬をゴボウ抜きにするシーンは、見ているだけでも爽快である。今や伝説となっているマティリアルのスプリングS、マヤノトップガンの天皇賞春、ダンスインザダークの菊花賞、最近ではハープスターの桜花賞などが思い浮かぶ。派手な追い込み勝ちをした馬は、いかにも強いという印象を与えるが、その反面、次のレースでは力を発揮できずに凡走してしまうことがほとんどである。

最大の理由としては、豪脚を使ったことによる肉体的な負担が大きく、次のレースで反動が出るからである。他馬の上がりを1秒以上も凌ぐ末脚を使うことで、競走馬が被る肉体的な負担は想像以上に大きい。速い時計の出やすい馬場であれば、なおさらである。次走で凡走するならまだましで、脚元に負担が掛かったことにより故障してしまう馬も少なくない。冒頭に挙げた4頭は、いずれも次走で敗退、もしくはそれをきっかけに引退しており、まさにこのケースに該当する。

現代の日本競馬の馬場に当てはめて、より具体的に示すとすれば、ラスト3ハロンを33秒台の脚を使って差し切った次のレースは凡走しやすいと言い換えてもよい。サラブレッドにとって、スタートしてからある程度の速いペースで走り、レースの最後にさらにペースを上げ、1ハロン11秒台前半のラップを続けて3回刻むことは、(脚元を含め)肉体的な限界に近づくことを意味する。時計の出やすい絶好の馬場であるからこそラスト3ハロン33秒台という数字が出るのだが、それゆえに、勝つために能力を出し切った馬、もしくは能力以上のものを出し切った馬にとっては、レース後の反動が大きい。

このことを私に示唆してくれたのは、藤澤和雄調教師の管理馬であったスティンガーという牝馬であった。

(続きは週刊Gallopにて)

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