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ラジオNIKKEI賞を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Radionikkei

■1■G1帰りの馬は消し
かつては「残念ダービー」と言われていたほど、ダービーに出走できなかった馬や、出走しても好走できなかった馬が好走したレースだが、過去10年では、前走がG1レース(ダービー、NHKマイルC、オークスなど)であった馬の成績は【1・1・1・18】と奮わない。前走が500万下であった馬の成績【4・4・2・32】と比べると、その差は明らかである。

それもそのはずで、前走がG1レースであった馬は、そのレースに向けて100%の仕上げで臨んでいるからである。目に見える見えないにかかわらず、ほとんどの馬の体調は、良くて前走から平行線、悪ければ下降線を辿って出走してくる。たとえG1レースに出走したような力のある馬でも、走られる状態になければ好走は望めない。

■2■1800m以上のスタミナ
この時期の福島競馬場は、芝が傷んで力を要する馬場になっている。野芝が成長を始めるものの、1回開催から期間が短いため、馬場の傷みは回復することなく進行していくからである。特に3~4コーナーにかけて内側の芝はかなり傷んでおり、各馬が馬場の良い外々を回すため、必然的に1800m以上の距離を走ることになる。

過去10年間のラップ
12.3-10.9-11.3-12.0-12.0-11.7-12.0-12.4-12.6(46.5-48.7)H
12.5-11.2-11.8-12.6-12.4-12.1-12.5-12.1-13.3(48.1-50.0)H
12.6-11.5-11.3-12.2-12.4-12.3-11.6-11.6-12.2(47.6-47.7)M
12.6-10.8-11.7-12.6-12.2-11.7-11.6-11.4-12.2(47.7-46.9)M
12.4-11.3-12.0-12.3-12.1-11.9-11.9-12.0-12.4(48.0-48.2)M
12.6-11.5-11.4-12.6-12.3-11.5-11.6-11.7-12.1(48.1-46.9)S
12.3-11.8-11.5-12.2-11.9-12.1-12.0-11.4-11.7(47.8-47.2)M
12.4-11.2-11.9-12.6-12.4-12.2-11.7-11.5-12.0(48.1-47.4)M
12.5-10.9-12.4-12.5-12.2-12.2-11.5-11.5-12.2(48.3-47.4)M
12.2-10.4-11.6-11.9-12.1-12.3-12.0-11.7-11.7(46.1-47.7)H

また、過去10年間のレースラップ(上記)を見てみると、ヴィータローザが勝った2003年のレースと一昨年以外は、ほとんどのレースが前傾ラップとなっている。各ジョッキーが直線の短さを意識し、好位を確保するために、前半からかなり厳しいペースでレースが流れていることが分かる。

つまり、以上の2点から、小回りの1800mというコース設定ではあるが、実は字ヅラ(1800m)以上のスタミナが必要とされるのである。

■3■長くいい脚を使える馬
福島競馬場の最後の直線は297mと短い。そのため、直線に向いてからの追い出すのでは遅く、各馬のスパートは3~4コーナーにかけて既に始まっている。コーナーを回りながらの仕掛けとなるため、一瞬の切れ味は生かしにくく、どちらかというとジワジワと伸びるタイプの馬にとって有利となる。もちろん、福島競馬場で実績のある馬は求められている適性に近いということだろう。

また、菊花賞を勝ったダンスインザダークの産駒や、将来の菊花賞2、3着馬が活躍していることからも、ラジオNIKKEI賞と菊花賞の間には深い連動性があることが分かる。求められている適性(長くいい脚を使える)が似ているということである。つまり、ラジオNIKKEI賞で好走した馬は菊花賞でも好走の確率は高く、逆に菊花賞で好走しそうな(血統の)馬がいれば、ラジオNIKKEI賞でも狙ってみても面白いということだ。

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