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ハイレベルなレースは負け組の中にも逸材が潜む

Rensai015

拙ブログの読者(以下Aさん)から、今年の春先、共同通信杯のレースレベルに関する質問をいただいた。Aさんは最近、ラップの研究を始められたそうで、今年の共同通信杯もラップ分析をしようと調べているうちに、2013年共同通信杯のレースレベルに疑問を感じたとのこと。

2013年共同通信杯
13.0 - 11.2 - 11.8 - 12.1 - 12.1 - 11.8 - 11.3 - 11.2 - 11.5 1:46.0

過去5年の同レースのラップと比べてみると、2013年は前半600mが36秒0、中盤600mも36秒0、そして後半600mが34秒0と一貫して速く、中でも中盤の36秒0は過去の共同通信杯のレースと比べても極端に速く、また後半800mも11秒8、11秒3、11秒2、11秒5と11秒台を連発している。

「ラップ分析が未熟な私がみると、これだけでレベルの高いレースだと思いました。しかし、その後のメイケイペガスターは大きなレースを勝つことはなく、他の好走馬も活躍していないことからも、2013年共同通信杯のレベルは高くないことが分かります。なぜこのようなことが起こっているのでしょうか?」

それに対して、私は以下のように返答した。

「メイケイペガスターが勝った2013年度は馬場が速かったのだと思います。同日の他のレースタイムを見るとそれほど感じませんが、過去の共同通信杯と比べてみると明白です。これぐらいタイム差(馬場差)があると、ラップの単純比較が困難になりますね。前半・中盤・後半の比較で分かりにくいときは、前半・後半に分けることをお勧めします」

(続きは週刊Gallopにて)

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