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七夕賞を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Tanabata

■1■上がり時計不問
12.5-11.2-11.6-11.4-11.9-12.0-12.5-12.5-12.3-12.5(58.6-61.8)H 
上がり3ハロン37秒3
12.4-11.5-11.8-11.6-11.7-11.7-11.8-12.0-12.1-12.7(59.0-60.3)H 
上がり3ハロン36秒8
12.3-11.1-12.1-12.2-12.1-11.9-12.0-12.0-12.1-12.5(59.8-60.5)M 
上がり3ハロン36秒6
12.5-11.3-11.9-12.1-12.5-12.0-11.7-11.9-11.7-12.2(60.3-59.5)M 
上がり3ハロン35秒8
12.5-11.5-12.2-12.3-12.6-12.0-11.8-11.7-11.3-12.3(61.1-59.1)S 
上がり3ハロン35秒3
12.5-11.4-12.1-12.2-12.8-12.0-11.7-11.8-12.0-11.9(61.0-59.4)S
上がり3ハロン35秒7
12.3-11.1-12.4-12.4-13.2-12.0-11.7-11.5-11.7-12.2(61.4-59.1)S
上がり3ハロン35秒4
12.3-11.2-12.0-12.3-12.5-12.4-11.8-12.0-12.2-12.4(60.3-60.8)M
上がり3ハロン36秒6
12.1-10.7-10.9-12.3-12.6-12.3-12.1-12.1-11.7-12.1(58.6-60.3)H
上がり3ハロン35秒9
12.2-11.4-11.2-12.0-12.1-11.9-11.9-11.6-11.8-12.6(58.9-59.8)M
上がり3ハロン36秒0

最近はスローに流れる競馬が多く、上がりが速くなる傾向が出てきているが、それ以前は上がりが35秒を切るレースの方が圧倒的に少なかった。馬場の劣化と、息の入らないペースによって、上がり時計が不問になりやすい。軽い瞬発力ではなく、その対極にある、パワーとスピードの持続力が求められるレースである。当然のことながら、こういう上がり時計不問のレースでは前に行った馬が有利になる。

■2■マイラーでもステイヤーでも厳しい
直線の短い小回りコースということもあって、スタート直後からガンガン飛ばしていく速い流れになりやすく、最後は底力の勝負になり、豊富なスタミナが要求される。そのため、純粋なマイラーにとっては厳しいレースとなる。かといって、ステイヤーに向くかというとそうでもなく、ステイヤーは道中の速く厳しい流れに戸惑ってしまうことになる。どちらかに偏っていない、中距離馬を狙い打つべきである。

■3■ハンデがハンデにならない!?
斤量         成績       連対率
51kg以下     【0・0・0・12】   0%
52kg        【2・0・0・10】  17%
53kg        【1・2・1・13】  18%
54kg        【0・1・1・21】   4%
55kg        【1・2・5・18】   12%
56kg        【1・2・2・22】   11%
57kg        【4・1・1・13】   26%
57.5kg以上   【1・2・1・8】   25%

ハンデ戦にもかかわらず、ハンデが重くなるにしたがって連対率が上がる傾向がある。そして、勝ち馬は55kg~57kgのゾーンに集中している。ハンデキャパ―に評価された実力馬が、そのまま素直に力を発揮して結果を出す舞台と考えてよい。

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