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函館記念を当てるために知っておくべき3つのこと

Hakodatekinen

■1■上がり馬が狙い目
G1       【0・1・1・13】 連対率7%
G2       【2・0・2・12】 連対率13%
G3       【2・1・2・16】 連対率14%
オープン特別 【5・7・2・53】 連対率18%
条件戦    【0・0・2・10】 連対率0%

過去9年で前走がG2レースから2頭、G3レースから2頭、オープン特別から5頭の勝ち馬が出ているように、これまでに実績のある馬ではなく、この夏に力を付けてきた(調子を上げてきた)馬が狙い目である。また、前走がオープン特別であった連対馬12頭中、9頭が巴賞出走馬である。函館記念1本に狙いを定めてきた上がり馬に注目すべき。

■2■2000m以上のスタミナが必要
トニービン、ニジンスキー、ノーザンダンサーなどの血を引く馬たちが活躍しているように、函館競馬場独特の洋芝によって、パワーはもちろんのこと、字ヅラ以上のスタミナが必要とされる。また、速い上がりが求められるレースになることはほとんどないので、瞬発力勝負では分が悪かった馬の巻き返しにも期待したい。

■3■内を通って差を詰めることの出来る差し馬
12.8-11.2-11.8-12.4-12.5-12.2-12.1-11.9-11.8-12.0(60.7-60.0)M
12.6-11.3-11.6-12.4-12.6-12.8-12.4-13.0-13.0-13.4(60.5-64.6)H
12.6-11.8-12.7-13.0-12.9-11.9-12.0-11.9-11.7-12.3(63.0-59.8)S
12.2-11.2-11.4-12.1-12.1-12.4-12.0-12.1-12.1-12.7(59.0-61.3)H
12.4-11.6-12.1-12.4-12.3-12.3-12.0-11.7-11.5-12.3(60.8-59.8)S 札幌競馬場
12.3-11.0-11.2-11.5-11.8-12.1-12.6-12.4-11.4-12.2(57.8-60.7)H
12.2-11.0-11.5-12.2-12.8-12.4-12.3-12.0-11.8-12.1(59.7-60.6)M
12.5-10.8-11.6-12.0-12.2-12.4-12.4-12.3-11.8-12.4(59.1-61.3)H
12.2-11.0-11.7-11.8-12.1-12.1-12.0-12.0-11.6-12.1(58.8-59.8)H
12.3-11.3-12.2-12.0-11.8-11.7-12.0-11.8-12.3-12.7(59.6-60.5)M

過去10年間のラップ構成を見ると、札幌競馬場で行われた年以外は、ミドルペースからハイペースとなり、案外スローにはならないことが分かる。毎年異なった展開で流れていることが分かる。ジョッキーが262mと短い直線を意識するため、向こう正面から既に動き出すからである。そのため、ペースや競馬場のコース形態のわりには逃げ馬が残りにくく、先行馬、そしてさらに、内を通って差を詰めることの出来る差し馬にとって有利なレースになる。

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